China: Friend or Foe?
Question: What does/will China’s short to medium term growth look like?
Points Raised:
Question: What are China’s intentions?
Points Raised:
Question: How should the US respond to continued Chinese aggression/cyber attacks/power plays?
Points Raised:
Question: Is China seeking to exert greater influence than the US?
Points Raised:
Conclusion: It is not whether China is a friend or foe, but: what can we do to keep China from becoming a foe?
Question: What does/will China’s short to medium term growth look like?
Points Raised:
- China’s growth compared to the United States is extremely high (claimed 7% vs. US 2%)
- Economy is doing poorly due to investment in 10% growth rate, rather than current 5%
- Can China escape the middle income trap?
- Demographic problem with aging population poses threat to continued growth - infrastructure not properly set up to accommodate aging population
- Restrictive immigration policies set limits on collecting young workers
Question: What are China’s intentions?
Points Raised:
- Rise in one country is contentious with another country - countries grow through competition
- Could be conflict of interests between US and China, but it is not their intention to challenge US
- Counter: China has a clear interest in subverting and undermining US influence
- Counter: China has a clear interest in subverting and undermining US influence
- China does not have an interest in integrating, but is interested in creating their own institutions
- Rise in Chinese nationalistic sentiment
- China avoids the WTO because the US obtains control, but also does not want to follow the rules that everyone else is playing by
- China feels threatened, and wants to have a capable defense to the US
Question: How should the US respond to continued Chinese aggression/cyber attacks/power plays?
Points Raised:
- US needs to maintain economic ties with China
- US should compete better with China in Africa
- Develop and maintain a robust cyber-security force
- Embargo goods to china for certain technological goods, if we do not respond to China we are simply acquiescence
- Counter: there is not political capital in the US to levy embargo
- Counter: there is not political capital in the US to levy embargo
- US needs to improve technological security
- Possibly conduct cyber attacks on China
Question: Is China seeking to exert greater influence than the US?
Points Raised:
- Does China want conflict? Are they trying to be combative?
- China wants to build military force to exert influence over the region
- There is a Naval arms race in the South China Sea
- China is seeking to exert influence over Malaysia, Philippines, Japan
- China is attempting to secure its outside borders, not attempting to challenge the US
Conclusion: It is not whether China is a friend or foe, but: what can we do to keep China from becoming a foe?